Housing Summit 6.0 focuses on impact of housing policy in Ontario

By Grant Cameron

for Canadian Forest Industries

Sept. 25, 2026

Ontario’s housing market is showing signs that policy changes introduced to boost construction are having an impact, but the supply gap remains stubborn, according to speakers at Housing Summit 6.0, hosted by the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON).

The gains remain insufficient to close the enormous housing supply gap, they said, with economic uncertainty, affordability pressures, planning delays and a looming skilled-labour shortage threatening progress.

The annual summit brought together industry leaders, policymakers, economists and housing experts to examine where the market is headed and what will be required to build enough homes for a growing population.

Ian Lee, associate professor at the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, summed up the state of reform with a qualified assessment.

“Is housing reform working in Canada?” Lee asked. “I’m going to give a qualified yes and a qualified no. It is sort of working.”

Lee said governments have taken meaningful steps in the right direction, but the scale of the challenge remains much greater than the response so far.

“Good stuff has happened,” he said. “We’re going in the right direction, but we’ve got to do more.”

Canada continues to produce roughly 250,000 housing starts a year, while the CMHC estimates that between 400,000 and 470,000 new homes annually will be needed to improve affordability and eliminate the accumulated supply shortfall.

“The numbers clearly show that we are not building enough,” Lee said. “It is crystal clear that we are still falling behind.”

The GTA resale market, meanwhile, is showing some of the ingredients normally associated with a recovery, according to Jason Mercer, chief market analyst at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.

Affordability has improved substantially from the height of the interest-rate tightening cycle. The annual income needed to purchase a $1-million GTA home has fallen from well above $200,000 to approximately $140,000 to $150,000.

Yet sales have not responded as strongly as expected. Annual GTA resale transactions remain in the 60,000-to-70,000 range, despite demographic trends that would normally support stronger activity.

Uncertainty over the economy, inflation and borrowing costs continues to make potential buyers cautious, even as pent-up demand accumulates.

Daniel Foch of Valery Real Estate Inc. highlighted another important trend: Canada’s housing markets are increasingly diverging.

Markets outside Ontario and British Columbia, he said, are continuing to attract residents because they offer comparatively attainable home ownership. Cities such as Calgary and Halifax have benefited from migration by younger Canadians seeking opportunities that have become increasingly difficult to find in the GTA and Vancouver.

“The markets that continue to grow and continue to attract new residents are the ones that remain affordable,” Foch said.

In many Canadian cities, home prices remain around four to five times household income. Toronto and Vancouver, by comparison, remain near double-digit price-to-income ratios, leaving some first-time buyers dependent on family assistance to qualify for a mortgage or assemble a down payment.

The Ontario government says it is working to address some of the structural barriers that have slowed construction.

Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister Rob Flack pointed to legislative changes aimed at reducing approval times and making it easier for builders to get projects moving. The measures include deferring development charges until occupancy, modifying site-plan requirements, updating building-code provisions and making broader planning changes.

Flack also highlighted Ontario’s partnership with the federal government to temporarily eliminate the HST on qualifying new homes, a measure long advocated by builders and housing organizations.

Early sales data, he said, indicate the policy is having an effect. New single-family home sales in the GTA tripled in July and August compared with the same period a year earlier, while Ontario new-home sales increased approximately 130 per cent year over year in the second quarter of 2026.

But public confidence remains weak. David Coletto, founder, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, told the summit that 79 per cent of Canadians believe the housing system is not working as it should, while nearly three-quarters believe not enough homes of all types are being built to meet demand.

Only about one in five Canadians surveyed said they were satisfied with the performance of federal, provincial or municipal governments on housing. In Ontario, just 16 per cent said the provincial government was moving in the right direction on housing affordability and availability.

RESCON president Richard Lyall praised governments for measures intended to increase construction and improve affordability but warned that the housing industry - in addition to trying to get back on track - must prepare now for potential future labour shortages.

“We commend all levels of government for their efforts,” Lyall said. “But the success of these initiatives is directly tied to skilled labour supply and our ability to continue delivering housing.”