We need a system that helps apprentices cross the finish line

By Richard Lyall

for Canadian Forest Industries

Oct. 17, 2026

Governments have announced initiatives to speed up approvals, cut red tape and encourage new home construction. Yet amid the discussion, one critical question has been overlooked: Who is going to build it?

Canada faces a looming skilled labour shortage just as the country is embarking on one of the most ambitious homebuilding agendas in generations. Meantime, figures show us that not enough young people are embarking on - much less completing - apprenticeship training programs.

According to federal projections, the nation will need more than 1.4 million new trades workers by 2033 to meet future demand, with roughly 700,000 trades expected to retire by the end of this decade. In construction alone, 15 per cent of the workforce is projected to retire by 2034.

Those numbers should concern anyone worried about housing affordability as every new home, and the infrastructure to support it, depends on skilled trades. The men and women who build homes - the carpenters, electricians, plumbers, bricklayers, ironworkers and heavy equipment operators - are not optional components of the housing equation. They are the housing equation.

Fortunately, there are encouraging signs that young Canadians and their families are increasingly recognizing the value of the skilled trades. A recent Business Development Bank of Canada study found that half of Canadians now believe trade school is the best way to prepare a child for a future career, compared with only 37 per cent who said the same about a university degree.

For years, conventional wisdom suggested that parents were steering their children away from the trades. However, attitudes are changing and that argument is becoming harder to make.

The problem today is not a lack of interest. It is a lack of successful outcomes.

A growing number of Canadians are entering apprenticeship programs, yet far too few are completing them.

Statistics Canada reported a record 101,500 apprenticeship registrations in 2024. However, only 47,000 apprentices received certification, representing a completion rate of just 19.9 per cent.

Even more troubling, apprenticeship completion rates have remained stuck at roughly 20 per cent of registrations since 2013.

Think about that for a moment.

If a university graduated only one out of every five students who enrolled, there would be public outrage. Governments would launch inquiries. Experts would demand reforms. Yet that’s not the case.

The situation should be viewed as a national economic problem. Every apprentice who drops out represents more than an individual setback. It means one less certified tradesperson available to help build homes, schools, hospitals and infrastructure. It means lost productivity, reduced economic growth and fewer opportunities to address the housing shortage.

Why are so many apprentices falling through the cracks?

The traditional response has focused primarily on recruitment and funding. Governments have introduced incentive programs, grants and awareness campaigns designed to attract more people into the trades. Those efforts should continue but they have not solved the completion problem.

A recent report prepared for RESCON argues that Canada's apprenticeship challenge is not primarily a recruitment issue or even an economic issue. It is a design issue.

The report's authors examined apprenticeship training through the lens of behavioural science, which looks at how people actually make decisions and navigate challenges in the real world.

For too long, apprenticeship systems have been designed around unrealistic assumptions. Policymakers often assume that individuals will remain highly motivated, successfully overcome obstacles on their own and persist through lengthy training processes without significant support.

But human beings rarely work that way. People face competing pressures from work, family and finances. They struggle with uncertainty, procrastination, self-doubt and administrative complexity. They lose momentum when systems become confusing or when progress feels too slow.

These are predictable human behaviours.

Behavioural science starts with a different premise. Rather than expecting people to adapt to a system, we should design a system that accounts for how people actually behave.

That approach could transform apprenticeship training.

If application pathways are difficult to understand, simplify them. If apprentices lose momentum during long periods between training milestones, create interventions that keep them engaged. If navigating certification requirements becomes overwhelming, provide coaching and guidance at critical stages. If isolation contributes to attrition, create mentorship programs that connect apprentices with experienced tradespeople.

The key is to identify where people are getting stuck and redesign the system to help them succeed.

Governments should continue investing in apprenticeship programs and financial supports, but they also need to measure success differently. Apprentice registrations are important, but completions are what matter.

Our housing ambitions will ultimately rise or fall on whether enough skilled workers are available to turn plans into reality. We need a system that helps apprentices cross the finish line, not just encourage them to sign up at the starting gate.

Richard Lyall is president of the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON). He has represented the building industry in Ontario since 1991. Contact him at media@rescon.com.